Monday 23 April 2007

The Races

I have been complaining about the fact that Manchester United and Chelsea now seem set to battle for glory on all fronts, but A. we have to await the Champions League semi-finals until we know if either of them make it in that particular competition, and B. at least we still do have a race for the title on. As has been seen before, and as is the case in Scotland and Italy this year, the title can be decided well before the end of the season. With 3 games to go, there is still everything to be decided in the Premier League.

The title is a race, in which anything can happen, between the aforementioned giants; Arsenal and Liverpool are in a sense battling for third and fourth. Everton, Bolton, Reading, Portsmouth and Tottenham are all within 4 points of each other and hoping for UEFA cup spots – should either or all of them go on a bizarre losing streak, Blackburn, Aston Villa, Newcastle and Man City, all within 2 points of each other, might even come up with a challenge. At the bottom of the table we find Watford, the only team which has already lost the fight for survival, but above them are 5 teams, West Ham, Charlton, Sheffield United, Wigan and Fulham, all within 4 points of each other and in fierce combat.

What makes it all more interesting are the run-ins and the fact that the top teams are clocking up a lot of games and injuries.

Manchester United have a long injury list and a tough fixture list: AC Milan (H), Everton (A), AC Milan (A), Manchester City (A), Chelsea (A) – followed by the FA-cup final in May.

Chelsea have less injuries but an equally intriguing fixture list: Liverpool (H), Bolton (H), Liverpool (A), Arsenal (A), Manchester United (H), Everton (H) – and then the FA-cup final.

Added to which could also be a Champions League final for either or both.

For the UEFA-cup contenders it looks as follows:

Everton (54) have Manchester United (H), Portsmouth (H) and Chelsea (A)
Bolton (54) have Chelsea (A), West Ham (A) and Aston Villa (H)
Reading (51) have Newcastle (H), Watford (H) and Blackburn (A)
Portsmouth (50) have Liverpool (H), Everton (A) and Arsenal (H)
Tottenham (50) have Middlesbrough (A), Charlton (A), Blackburn (H) and Man City (H)

On paper, Spurs could quite conceivably end up in 5th place – but football is rarely like that. Reading have a good chance at getting full points from their remaining fixtures and if Spurs get tired with three games in the last 7 days the UEFA-cup spots could go to Reading, Bolton and Everton. For Spurs having a game in hand may prove to be less of an advantage than a handicap as the final three fixtures have piled up in one week. Because of the closeness in points here, goal difference could very well become an issue, something which would work in Everton’s (+15) favour and help their tricky run-in. Intriguingly, Bolton and Spurs both have a negative goal difference, -3 and -1 respectively.

At the bottom, from the bottom, it looks as follows:

West Ham (32) have Wigan (A), Bolton (H) and Manchester United (A)
Charlton (33) have Blackburn (A), Tottenham (H) and Liverpool (A)
Sheffield United
(35) have Watford (H), Aston Villa (A) and Wigan (H)
Wigan (35) have West Ham (H), Middlesbrough (H) and Sheffield United (A)
Fulham (36) have Arsenal (A), Liverpool (H) and Middlesbrough (A)

On paper Charlton and West Ham would seem mainly doomed, with Fulham blessed with a run-in which makes them almost as much so. But again we can never be sure, especially not with the “biggies” getting tired and the relegation candidates fighting for survival.

I don’t even know what to say about all this as predictions everywhere seem futile: the race is on, let’s just put our seat belts on and enjoy!